95th Academy Award Predictions

Tomorrow, 2022 in film will formerly come to an end, as movies from last year are awarded throughout the night with Oscar statues.

Like most years, there are clear front-runners, close races, and snubs, all of which this post will break down.

Best Picture

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Malte Grunert, Producer
• “Avatar: The Way of Water,” James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
• “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
• “Elvis,” Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers
• “The Fabelmans,” Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
• “Tár,” Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
• “Top Gun: Maverick,” Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
• “Triangle of Sadness,” Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
• “Women Talking,” Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers

Who Will Win: “Everything Everywhere All At Once” is almost assured a win here. So far it’s earned Best Picture from the Critics Choice Awards, Gotham Awards, Spirit Awards and the Producers Guild, as well as the Best Ensemble honor from the Screen Actors Guild.

On top of that, it received top honors from the Writers Guild of America and the Directors Guild of America. It has a ton of momentum right now. There likely wouldn’t be a bigger shock if this lost. Win probability is 99 percent.

Who Could Win: I really don’t see any other film winning this category. But if there was an upset, it would likely either be “The Banshees of Inisherin,” which won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical, or “All Quiet on the Western Front.”

I lean toward the latter in an upset, which won the Best Film award from the more prestigious British Academy of Film and Television Arts.

Who Should Win: While I did really enjoy “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” there were other Best Picture nominees ahead of it. Of those nominated, “Tár” was my favorite, coming in at No. 2 on my list.

I also was big on “Banshees,” which came in at No. 3. “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” meanwhile, came in at No. 5. I will have no issue with it winning, though.

Snubbed: My No. 1 movie of 2022 was the fantastic drama “The Whale,” which received no nomination. I absolutely think it deserved to be in the group of 10. Kick the “Avatar” sequel out if need be.

Best Director

• Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
• Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
• Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
• Todd Field (“Tár”)
• Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Who Will Win: Another safe pick for “Everything.” The team of Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert has won Best Director from the Critics’ Choice Awards and Spirit Awards, as well as the big prize from the aforementioned DGA.

Who Could Win: This one isn’t the completely sure lock like Best Picture appears to be. If it isn’t the Daniels, a good bet is Steven Speilberg for “The Fabelmans.”

He’s also picked up a few Best Director wins, one from the Golden Globes and another from the National Board of Review. He certainly could play spoiler.

Who Should Win: This is, mostly, a good lineup of nominees. I think the Daniels, Field and McDonagh are all well deserving.

Snubbed: It would have been a major longshot, but Matt Reeves did excellent work in directing “The Batman” and it would have been nice to see him nominated.

Best Lead Actor

• Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
• Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
• Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
• Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)
• Bill Nighy (“Living”)

Who Will Win: Here’s where things get more interesting. Austin Butler won Best Actor from the BAFTA and split the Golden Globes with Farrell, as he won for drama and Farrell won for comedy/musical.

Then Fraser picked up the SAG win and the Critics Choice Award. Certainly a tough one to predict, but I will go with Butler, mainly for how the Oscars have historically favored not only biopic performances, but musical biopic performances.

Who Could Win: If not Butler, out of the other two in contention, I would go with Fraser since he has the SAG victory.

Who Should Win: One of the factors making “The Whale” my No. 1 movie of the year was Fraser’s incredible performance. He was absolutely phenomenal in the picture and while Butler was good, I think Fraser deserves the win.

Best Lead Actress

• Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
• Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)
• Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
• Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
• Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Who Will Win: This is somewhat similar to Best Actor. Michelle Yeoh picked up the important SAG victory, but Blanchett earned plenty of wins including the BAFTA, Critic’s Choice and the Golden Globes.

Yeoh appears to have a lot of momentum, though, and with this potentially being the first Oscar of her career, I think she’s the front-runner.

Who Could Win: If not Yeoh, it will most certainly be Blanchett.

Who Should Win: Both Yeoh and Blanchett gave great performances, but I would give the edge to Blanchett. It was one of the best performances of her career, and that’s saying something.

Best Supporting Actor

• Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
• Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
• Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
• Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
• Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Who Will Win: Huy Quan is pretty much a guarantee. He’s earned the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe and the SAG. The only award he didn’t pick up was the BAFTA, and that group didn’t seem very high on that movie overall. This one is pretty much locked up.

Who Could Win: This would be a big shocker. It’s very unlikely that Huy Quan loses. If he did, though, it would probably mean a Gleeson win.

Who Should Win: Funny enough, I think both Huy Quan and Gleeson are both worthy of the award, with each doing tremendous work.

Best Supporting Actress

• Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
• Hong Chau (“The Whale”)
• Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
• Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
• Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Who Will Win: The win in Bassett’s sails have lessened a bit after Curtis took home the SAG, but I think she’s still in line for the Oscar. She has a few good wins already and this would be her chance at a legacy-type Oscar victory.

Who Could Win: If not Bassett, my guess is the Academy will follow the SAG and go with Curtis.

Who Should Win: Of the nominees, I think Condon and Chau gave by far the best performances, and Hsu was phenomenal as well. Either one of those three winning would be great. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
• “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” Written by Rian Johnson
• “Living,” Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
• “Top Gun: Maverick,” Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
• “Women Talking,” Screenplay by Sarah Polley

Who Will Win: “All Quiet” is a contender in this category for sure but “Women Talking” picked up a few crucial wins, earning victories in the Writers Guild of America awards and the USC Scripter Awards. I think it picks up the win on Oscar night, too.

Who Could Win: “All Quiet on the Western Front.”

Who Should Win: The screenplay for “Women Talking” was exceptional, it definitely will be a worthy winner.

Snubbed: “The Whale” was based on a play so it would have been eligible for this category. However, it was completely looked over, unfortunately.

Best Original Screenplay

• “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Written by Martin McDonagh
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
• “The Fabelmans,” Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
• “Tár,” Written by Todd Field
• “Triangle of Sadness,” Written by Ruben Östlund

Who Will Win: “Everything Everywhere” has the critical WGA win for original screenplay. However, “Banshees” was ineligible there, and it won the BAFTA award in this category.

My take is, because “All at Once” is likely to have several wins and “Banshees” will be shut out in most categories, “Inisherin” will pick up a victory in this spot.

Who Could Win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

Who Should Win: “The Banshees of Inisherin” was a brilliant film and McDonagh’s fantastic writing definitely was a key part in making that the case. It would get my vote.

Best Cinematography

• “All Quiet on the Western Front”, James Friend
• “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” Darius Khondji
• “Elvis,” Mandy Walker
• “Empire of Light,” Roger Deakins
• “Tár,” Florian Hoffmeister

Who Will Win: This one is really close. “All Quiet” won the BAFTA in this category and earning a Best Picture nomination as a foreign film puts it a step forward. However, “Elvis” earned a huge victory, winning the top prize from the American Society of Cinematographers.

Ultimately, I think the Academy goes with “Western Front” in this case,

Who Could Win: “Elvis.”

Who Should Win: “All Quiet of the Western Front.”

Best Documentary Feature Film

• “All That Breathes,” Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer
• “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov
• “Fire of Love,” Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman
• “A House Made of Splinters,” Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
• “Navalny,” Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris

Who Will Win: “Navalny” already has the BAFTA and PGA awards for Best Documentary on its resume. Another thing in its corner is its strong anti-Vladimir Putin stance, which could push more Academy voters to give it the win.

Who Could Win: There’s a chance “Fire of Love” or “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” could play spoiler.

Who Should Win: “Navalny.”

Best Documentary Short Film

• “The Elephant Whisperers,” Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
• “Haulout,” Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
• “How Do You Measure a Year?” Jay Rosenblatt
• “The Martha Mitchell Effect,” Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
• “Stranger at the Gate,” Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

Who Will Win: “The Elephant Whisperers.”

Who Could Win: “Stranger at the Gate.”

Best Film Editing

• “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
• “Elvis,” Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Paul Rogers
• “Tár,” Monika Willi
• “Top Gun: Maverick,” Eddie Hamilton

Who Will Win: This category appears competitive. “Everything Everywhere All At Once” and “Top Gun: Maverick” both won Best Edited Feature Film from the American Cinema Editors in Comedy and Drama respectively.

I will give the nod to “Everything” in this case, though. One, it is also expected to win Best Picture. Two, it won Best Editing from the BAFTAs, even when that org wasn’t high on that film.

Who Could Win: “Top Gun: Maverick.”

Who Should Win: “Everything Everywhere All At Once.”

Best International Feature Film

• “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
• “Argentina, 1985” (Argentina)
• “Close” (Belgium)
• “EO” (Poland)
• “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)

Who Will Win: “All Quiet on the Western Front.”

Who Could Win: “Argentina, 1985.”

Best Original Song

• “Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman,” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
• “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick,” Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
• “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
• “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR,” Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
• “This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

Who Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR.”

Who Could Win: “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.”

Best Production Design

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
• “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
• “Babylon,” Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
• “Elvis,” Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
• “The Fabelmans,” Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

Who Will Win: “Babylon.”

Who Could Win: “Elvis.”

Best Visual Effects

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
• “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
• “The Batman,” Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
• “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
• “Top Gun: Maverick,” Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher

Who Will Win: “Avatar: The Way of Water” was another impressive showcase of special effects and the Oscars will very likely honor that fact. Plus, the film has already picked up a lot of wins from the Visual Effects Society.

Who Could Win: An upset is somewhat possible. “Maverick” was a popular film, featured great effects, and is a small dark horse.

Who Should Win: “Avatar: The Way of Water.”

Best Animated Feature Film

• “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,” Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley
• “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,” Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey
• “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
• “The Sea Beast,” Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
• “Turning Red,” Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins

Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio has won Best Animated Feature at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, BAFTAs and most importantly, the Annie. The latter is from the animation-centric awards. It will most likely win the award.

Who Could Win: Right now, “Pinocchio” is the clear front-runner, but if there was an upset, I could see the “Puss in Boots” sequel winning.

Who Should Win: “Turning Red” was my favorite animated film of the year and it wasn’t even close. I absolutely think it should win this. Honestly, though, I’d be happy with “Puss in Boots” or “Marcel” winning too. I admit, I am in the minority, I didn’t like “Pinocchio.”

Best Animated Short Film

• “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse,” Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
• “The Flying Sailor,” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
• “Ice Merchants,” João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano
• “My Year of Dicks,” Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
• “An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It,” Lachlan Pendragon

Who Will Win: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse.”

Who Could Win: “My Year of Dicks.”

Best Costume Design

• “Babylon,” Mary Zophres
• “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Ruth Carter
• “Elvis,” Catherine Martin
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Shirley Kurata
• “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris,” Jenny Beavan

Who Will Win: “Elvis.”

Who Could Win: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.”

Who Should Win: “Elvis.”

Best Live Action Short

• “An Irish Goodbye,” Tom Berkeley and Ross White
• “Ivalu,” Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
• “Le Pupille,” Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
• “Night Ride,” Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
• “The Red Suitcase,” Cyrus Neshvad

Who Will Win: “An Irish Goodbye.”

Who Could Win: “Le Pupille.”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
• “The Batman,” Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
• “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
• “Elvis,” Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
• “The Whale,” Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley

Who Will Win: “Elvis.”

Who Could Win: “The Whale”

Best Original Score

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Volker Bertelmann
• “Babylon,” Justin Hurwitz
• “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Carter Burwell
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Son Lux
• “The Fabelmans,” John Williams

Who Will Win: “The Fabelmans.”

Who Could Win: “Babylon.”

Best Sound

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
• “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
• “The Batman,” Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
• “Elvis,” David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
• “Top Gun: Maverick,” Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

Who Will Win: “Top Gun: Maverick.”

Who Could Win: “All Quiet on the Western Front.”

Who Should Win: “Top Gun: Maverick.”