78th Golden Globe Predictions

The Golden Globes always seem to have some surprises, and as a result, my predictions haven’t always looked great.

I’m sure the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has some interesting picks tonight and I’ll probably have a fair share off. But, I’m giving it a shot here. These are my predictions and also some opinions on who I think should win.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

  • “The Father”
  • “Mank”
  • “Nomadland”
  • “Promising Young Woman”
  • “The Trial of the Chicago 7”

Will Win: “The Trial of the Chicago 7” seems to have good momentum this award season and considering its political relevancy, the HFPA will likely give it the award.


Should Win: “Nomadland” is my No. 1 film of 2020. It’s an exquisite picture and I think it should win.

Could Win: The HFPA could always throw a surprise and give the honor to “Nomadland,” considering how well received it has been.

Prediction: WRONG. “Nomadland” won.

Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy

  • “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
  • “Hamilton”
  • “Music”
  • “Palm Springs”
  • “The Prom.”

Will Win: This is kind of a weak field this year, so I can see “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” winning for its political commentary.

Should Win: I really dug “Palm Springs.” it was an enjoyable, creative take on the day-repeat concept. Considering the rest of the films, I’d want it to win. Although, I wouldn’t be upset if “The Prom” won, either.

Could Win: “Hamilton” has been a well known phenomenon and the HFPA sometimes throws curveballs. It certainly could go with this filmed stage production.

Prediction: RIGHT. “Borat” 2 won.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

  • Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”
  • Andra Day, “The United States vs Billie Holiday.”
  • Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman.”
  • Frances McDormand, “Nomadland.”
  • Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman.”

Will Win: Carey Mulligan appears to be the front-runner this season for her work in “Promising Young Woman” and that’s likely to continue here.


Should Win: Carey Mulligan was absolutely superb in “Promising Young Woman” and I think she is completely deserving of accolades.

Could Win: I think if not Mulligan, Vanessa Kirby might have a shot here, but it’s slight.

Prediction: WRONG, Andra Day won for “The United States vs Billie Holiday.”

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

  • Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal.”
  • Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”
  • Anthony Hopkins, “The Father.”
  • Gary Oldman, “Mank.”
  • Tahar Rahim, “The Mauritanian.”

Will Win: It seems like Chadwick Boseman has surged this award season for his work in the “Ma Rainey” film. This is a pretty stacked year, but the HFPA and other organizations may honor the life of the late Boseman with an award.

Should Win: Riz Ahmed gave one of the most moving performances of the year. His ability to capture what his character was going through in “Sound of Metal” was impressive.

Could Win: Ahmed certainly has a chance here to pull the upset, as does Anthony Hopkins.

Prediction: RIGHT, Chadwick Boseman won.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

  • Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.”
  • Kate Hudson, “Music.”
  • Michelle Pfeiffer, “French Exit.”
  • Rosamund Pike, “I Care a Lot.”
  • Anya Taylor-Joy, “Emma.”

Will Win: Maria Bakalova of the “Borat” sequel seems to have the edge this year, especially considering the rest of the field.

Should Win: Bakalova did some impressive work acting opposite of the eccentric Borat character. I haven’t seen all of the other films, but I would have no issue with Bakalova winning.

Prediction: WRONG, Rosamund Pike won.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

  • Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.”
  • James Corden, “The Prom.”
  • Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton.”
  • Dev Patel, “The Personal History of David Copperfield.”
  • Andy Samberg, “Palm Springs.”

Will Win: Considering the field, I feel like Sacha Baron Cohen has the best chance for this, especially since HFPA likes to have some memorable Globe moments and Cohen will likely bring one in his speech.

Should Win: Andy Samberg was great in “Palm Springs” and considering the quality of that film, I want him to win.

Could Win: Dev Patel has had his fair share of success in award season and he could get lucky tonight, but it’s a long shot.

Prediction: RIGHT, Sacha Baron Cohen won.

Best Motion Picture – Animated

  • “The Croods: New Age.”
  • “Onward.”
  • “Over the Moon.”
  • “Soul.”
  • “Wolfwalkers.”

Will win: Pixar should return to its award season glory this year with “Soul.” The movie has been heavily acclaimed and praised and that should continue tonight.

Should Win: “Wolfwalkers” is my favorite animated film of the year and I think it was stronger than “Soul.”

Could Win: The HFPA has been known to go off script with its animated picks and if it does so tonight, my guess is they’ll take”Wolfwalkers.”

Prediction: RIGHT, “Soul” won.

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language

  • “Another Round.”
  • “La Llorona.”
  • “The Life Ahead.”
  • “Minari.”
  • “Two of Us.”

Will Win: The HFPA specifically nominated “Minari” in this category, despite the movie taking place in Arkansas and with plenty of English being spoken. My guess, they wanted to honor this movie but not put it up against other dramas.


Could Win: “Another Round” has been well received so it also has a shot.

Prediction: RIGHT, “Minari” won.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

  • Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy.”
  • Olivia Colman, “The Father.”
  • Jodie Foster, “The Mauritanian.”
  • Amanda Seyfried, “Mank.”
  • Helena Zengel, “News of the World.”

Will Win: Olivia Colman seems to be picking up momentum as more people see “The Father” and based on the positive feedback, she’s my pick.

Could Win: Movies about Hollywood usually have some success so I could see Amanda Seyfried winning for her classic Tinseltown role in “Mank.”

Prediction: WRONG, Jodie Foster won.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”
  • Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah.”
  • Jared Leto, “The Little Things.”
  • Bill Murray, “On the Rocks.”
  • Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami.”

Will Win: “One Night in Miami” was an acting showcase and Leslie Odom Jr. shined. As a result, it won’t be a surprise to see him win.

Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya was incredible in “Judas,” bringing passion and emotion to his performance. All things considered, I liked all of the performances listed except Leto, so I’ll be mostly happy with a result besides one for “The Little Things.”

Could Win: I think outside of Odom Jr. or Kaluuya, Cohen has a slight chance.

Prediction: WRONG, Daniel Kaluuya won.

Best Director – Motion Picture

  • Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman.”
  • David Fincher, “Mank.”
  • Regina King, “One Night in Miami.”
  • Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”
  • Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland.”

Will Win: Chloe Zhao is looking to have a great award season and a Golden Globe win will be part of it. Her work has been widely acclaimed and she’ll likely get the trophy tonight.


Should Win: Zhao deserves it, her work was top tier.

Could Win: If not Zhao, which would be a shocker, my guess would maybe be the HFPA going with Emerald Fennell.

Prediction: RIGHT, Zhao won the award.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

  • Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman.”
  • Jack Fincher, “Mank.”
  • Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”
  • Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, “The Father.”
  • Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland.”

Will Win: Aaron Sorkin is usually successful in this neck of the woods and that will probably continue tonight with his courtroom drama script.

Should Win: I think the biting, razor sharp script Fennell created should earn the top spot.

Could Win: David Fincher’s father Jack wrote “Mank” back in the 1990s and as a way to honor the writer posthumously, I could maybe see the HFPA giving the work a nod.

Prediction: RIGHT, Sorkin won the Globe.

Best Original Score – Motion Picture

  • Alexandre Desplat, “The Midnight Sky.”
  • Ludwig Goransson, “Tenet.”
  • James Newton Howard, “News of the World.”
  • Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “Mank.”
  • Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “Soul.”

Will Win: “Mank” is probably the front-runner for this one, considering “Minari” was sadly not nominated.

Could win: “Soul” also has a chance, but I don’t see the HFPA giving it the nod because it’s an animated feature.

Prediction: WRONG, “Soul” won.

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

  • “Fight For You,” “Judas and the Black Messiah.”
  • “Hear My Voice,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”
  • “Seen,” “The Life Ahead.”
  • “Speak Now,” “One Night in Miami.”
  • “Tigress and Tweed,” “The United States vs Billie Holiday.”

Will Win: “Speak Now” has a real good chance tonight, with plenty of momentum thanks to Leslie Odom Jr.’s strong portrayal of singer Sam Cooke.

Prediction: WRONG, “Seen” from “The Life Ahead” won.

Predictions Record: 7 RIGHT, 7 WRONG.

Author: Matthew Liedke

Journalist and film critic in Minnesota. Graduate of Rainy River College and Minnesota State University in Moorhead. Outside of movies I also enjoy sports, craft beers and the occasional video game.

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