‘Roma’ has a good chance for Oscar glory on Sunday

Award season spans over several months, with film festivals, the Golden Globes, the guild awards and other ceremonies taking place. All of it leads to one night, Oscar Sunday.

On Feb. 24, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will honor the best that the film industry had to offer last year, whether they be from Hollywood or indie corners. Of all the categories the Academy hands out gold trophies for, though, there is one that stands above the rest.

Best Picture.

Here are the films nominated in the category:

  • “Black Panther.”
  • “BlackKklansman.”
  • “Bohemian Rhapsody.”
  • “The Favourite.”
  • “Green Book.”
  • “Roma.”
  • “A Star is Born.”
  • “Vice.”

Considering all of the nominees, here are my thoughts.

Who will win:

“Roma,” directed by Alfonso Cuaron, has a very impressive resume heading into Oscar night, even as a film in a foreign language. So far this season, it has won Best Film from the British Academy, Best Picture from the Critics’ Choice, and the Golden Globe award for Best Film in a foreign language.

It also helps that Cuaron himself has picked up several awards specifically for his direction of the movie. Another good sign is the number of nominations the flick picked up. In total, “Roma” is tied at 10 with “The Favourite.”

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“Roma” director Alfonso Cuaron. Courtesy Getty Images.

Who could win:

There is certainly a chance that “Green Book” could win the award Sunday, considering its fairly solid track record. The movie has already won the Best Motion Picture-Comedy Golden Globe award and the best film award from the Producers Guild of America.

Another possibility is the Academy shocking the world and selecting “Black Panther.” The film has been a cultural phenomenon and it could be the first super hero film to earn Best Picture.

Who should win:

Both “Roma” and “The Favourite” were in my top three movies for 2018, so I feel they are most deserving. “Roma” is a deeply passionateĀ slice of life project while “The Favourite” is a brilliant, dark comedy. Both excel in several categories of the film making process.

Snubbed:

“First Reformed,” “Eighth Grade,” “If Beale Street Could Talk,” “Hereditary” and “Can You Ever Forgive Me” are all far more deserving than “Bohemian Rhapsody,” “Green Book” and “Vice” in my opinion.

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees:

  • “The Favourite.”
  • “First Reformed.”
  • “Green Book.”
  • “Roma.”
  • “Vice.”

Who will win:

Both “The Favourite” and “Green Book” have screenplay wins under its belt. “Favourite” earned a victory from the British Academy while “Book” took home a Globe.

However, one telling factor may be what happened with the Writers Guild of America Awards. Because of the WGA guidelines, “The Favourite” was not nominated for an award from the guild, but “Green Book” was. In the end, though, the WGA didn’t go for “Green Book” and instead gave the award to “Eighth Grade.”

Without that endorsement from the WGA for “Green Book,” “The Favourite’s” writers Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara are now in prime position to earn the Oscar.

British Independent Film Awards, Press Room, Old Billingsgate, London, UK - 02 Dec 2018
“The Favourite” writers Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara. Courtesy Shutterstock.

Who could win:

With that said, the race is still relatively close, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility for “Green Book” to snag this one.

Who should win:

My No. 1 movie of 2018 was “First Reformed,” so I would love to see it pull a stunner. The script, written by Paul Schrader who also directed, provided so much depth and and intrigue for the viewer. However, I’d be completely fine with “Favourite” winning, too.

Snubbed:

Easy choice here, it’s the movie that won the award from the WGA. If it was up to me, I’d swap out “Green Book” and throw in “Eighth Grade.”

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees:

  • “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.”
  • “BlackKklansman.”
  • “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
  • “If Beale Street Could Talk.”
  • “A Star is Born.”

Who will win:

Adapted Screenplay has become a race of three. “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” won the WGA award in the adapted section, “Beale Street” earned the adapted category awards from the National Board of Review and the Critics’ Choice. Then, there’s “BlackKklansman,” which earned the adapted award from the British Academy.

This could be a pretty close one, but my guess is the Academy will go with “BlackKklansman.” Considering how well the screenplay was written and how it incorporated the subject matter, combined with the fact that writer and director Spike Lee hasn’t received an Oscar yet, I could see the Academy giving him the honor. Listed co-writers for “BlackKklansman” are David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott and Charlie Wachtel.

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“BlackKklansman” writer and director Spike Lee. Courtesy NBC.

Who could win:

Considering how close the race is, there’s a chance the winner might not be “BlackKklansman.” Because of its WGA win, I could see “Forgive Me?” taking the Oscar.

Who should win:

The thing I probably enjoyed most about “Beale Street” was its incredible screenplay. It’s a fantastic piece of work and I’d appreciate seeing it win on Oscar night. However, I wouldn’t mind seeing “BlackKklansman” or “Forgive Me?” win the award.

For my predictions on the rest of the categories, check out the links below:

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Author: Matthew Liedke

I'm a reporter for the Bemidji Pioneer in Minnesota, and I also have a passion for the art of film. This passion led me to start writing about film in 2008. From 2008-2016 I wrote pieces at my own website, After the Movie Reviews. Then, from 2016-May 2018, my write-ups were featured on AreaVoices, a blog network run by Forum Communications Company. Today, I write film reviews and other pieces here on Word Press. More about me: I'm a 2009 graduate of Rainy River College and a 2012 graduate of Minnesota State University in Moorhead. At MSU, I studied journalism and film. Outside of movies, I enjoy sports, video games, anime and craft beers.

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